Austin Housing Market Update: What Fall 2026 Means

If you're wondering where the Austin housing market stands this fall, here's the short answer: prices across the metro are holding roughly steady, fewer homes are selling, and mortgage rates have climbed above 7%. In September 2026, the median sales price in the five-county Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos area was $421,000, up 1.4% from a year earlier, while closed sales fell 14.8%, according to Unlock MLS. For buyers, that means choice and room to negotiate. For sellers, it means pricing and preparation matter more than ever.

Below, we break down the latest numbers, what's driving them, and what they mean for you whether you're buying, selling or simply keeping an eye on your home's value.

Austin Home Prices: The September 2026 Snapshot

Unlock MLS (the MLS serving the Austin Board of Realtors) released its September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report this month. Here are the headline figures compared with September 2025:

• Austin metro median price: $421,000 (up 1.4%)
• Austin metro closed sales: 2,223 (down 14.8%)
• New listings: 3,546 (up 2.8%)
• Active listings: 13,465 (down 3.4%)
• Pending sales: 2,313 (down 1.8%)
• Months of inventory: 5.4 (down 0.1 month)
• Average close-to-list price ratio: 92.7% (up from 91.4%)

That drop in closed sales is the number getting the most attention. Vaike O'Grady, research advisor at Unlock MLS, put it this way: "September's decline in closed sales is significant, and it shows just how sensitive today's housing market is to changes in mortgage rates."

Still, the picture isn't one-sided. Pending sales, which point to closings over the next month or two, slipped only 1.8%. And the close-to-list price ratio improved, meaning homes that did sell came closer to their asking price than they did a year ago.

City of Austin

Inside city limits, the median price rose 4.2% to $570,958 in September 2026, while closed sales fell 12.7% to 777. Active listings dropped 10.3% to 4,502, and months of inventory came in at 5.4. Fewer homes on the market inside the city has helped support prices, even as fewer buyers closed.

County by County: Where the Austin Market Is Shifting

Central Texas isn't one market. Here's how the surrounding counties compared in September 2026 (Unlock MLS):

• Travis County: Median price $497,400 (up 2.6%), 1,031 sales (down 9.6%), 5.8 months of inventory.
• Williamson County: Median price $395,000 (down 2.5%), 765 sales (down 12.1%), new listings up 7.7%, 5.0 months of inventory.
• Hays County: Median price $399,900 (up 10.8%), 294 sales (down 30.5%), 4.8 months of inventory.
• Bastrop County: Median price $340,000 (down 1.2%), 105 sales (down 21.1%), 7.6 months of inventory.

A few takeaways. Williamson County, home to Round Rock, Georgetown, Cedar Park and Leander, saw more sellers list while prices eased slightly, which can favor buyers. Hays County posted a double-digit price gain on far fewer sales, so we'd treat that number with some caution; a smaller pool of closings can swing medians quickly. Bastrop County has the most supply of the group, at 7.6 months.

Mortgage Rates Above 7%: What's Changed

Financing costs are a big part of this fall's story. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of October 15, 2026, put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40%, unchanged from the prior week but well above the 6.27% average a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%.

A higher rate changes the monthly payment on the same purchase price, which helps explain why some buyers paused in September. It also explains why buyers who are still active tend to be serious, prepared and focused on value.

How Austin Compares With the Rest of Texas

For broader context, the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M reported that in July 2026 (the most recent month in its September Texas Housing Insight), the statewide median price was $339,000, unchanged from a year earlier. Texas had a 5.5-month supply of homes, and sold homes spent an average of 63 days on the market, compared with 61 days a year earlier.

The same report showed Austin's home price index down 1.4% year over year in July, so local prices have been flat-to-soft through much of 2026 rather than surging or falling sharply.

What This Means for Austin Home Buyers

With about 5.4 months of inventory metro-wide, buyers have more options and more time than they did a few years ago. Here's how we suggest approaching it:

• Get pre-approved early. With rates above 7%, knowing your real budget and monthly payment before you tour homes keeps you focused.
• Ask about seller concessions. In a market where homes sell, on average, below list price, it's reasonable to discuss help with closing costs or a rate buydown.
• Look at the full monthly cost. Property taxes, insurance and HOA dues vary a lot from county to county and neighborhood to neighborhood.
• Compare submarkets. The difference between a Travis County median and a Williamson or Bastrop County median can change what's possible for your budget.

It's also worth knowing that in November 2025, Texas voters approved Proposition 13, which raised the school district homestead exemption from $100,000 to $140,000. If you buy a home to live in, be sure to file for your homestead exemption with your county appraisal district.

What This Means for Austin Home Sellers

Sellers are still selling, and the improved close-to-list ratio is encouraging. But with buyers watching their payments closely, the homes that move tend to share a few traits:

• Priced to the current market, based on recent nearby sales rather than last year's highs.
• Move-in ready, with small repairs handled and the home well presented in photos.
• Flexible on terms, such as offering a credit that helps a buyer manage a higher rate.

Every neighborhood behaves a little differently, so a local pricing review is the best place to start.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are home prices dropping in Austin?

Not across the board. In September 2026, the Austin metro median price was $421,000, up 1.4% from a year earlier, according to Unlock MLS. Some areas, like Williamson and Bastrop counties, saw small declines, while the City of Austin and Hays County rose.

Is fall 2026 a good time to buy a home in Austin?

It depends on your situation and budget. Buyers currently have more inventory and negotiating room than in recent years, but mortgage rates are higher than they were a year ago. Talking with a lender and a local agent can help you weigh both.

What are mortgage rates right now?

Freddie Mac reported an average 30-year fixed rate of 7.40% and a 15-year fixed rate of 6.71% for the week of October 15, 2026. Your actual rate will depend on your credit, down payment and loan type.

How much inventory is there in the Austin housing market?

The Austin metro had 13,465 active listings and 5.4 months of inventory in September 2026, per Unlock MLS.

Talk With Our Austin Team

Numbers tell part of the story, but every home and every move is personal. Whether you're thinking about buying, selling or just want to know what your home might be worth this fall, our Austin team at 111 Congress Ave, Suite 500, is happy to walk you through what's happening in your neighborhood. Reach out to BAEMAYR anytime; we'd love to help.

This article is for general informational purposes only and is not legal, tax or financial advice. Please consult a qualified professional about your specific situation. Market data reflects the months noted and may be revised.

Sources

• Unlock MLS, September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report (data: September 2026) — https://www.unlockmls.com/news/september-2026-central-texas-housing-report
• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, "Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 7.40%" (released October 15, 2026) — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/15/3381991/0/en/mortgage-rates-hold-steady-at-7-40.html and https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
• Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M, Texas Housing Insight, September 2026 edition (data: July 2026) — https://trerc.tamu.edu/reports/texas-housing-insight-september-2026/
• FOX 7 Austin, "Texans pass Proposition 13 aimed at increasing homestead tax exemption" (election: November 4, 2025) — https://fox7austin.com/election/texas-proposition-13-election-results-2025

Notes: Unlock MLS did not publish a September days-on-market figure, so the article uses the statewide July figure from the Texas Real Estate Research Center instead of an unverified local number. The O'Grady quote is taken word for word from the Unlock MLS report.